US Crude Oil: Fluctuating Downward, Sell Short on Highs

(1) Analysis reasons: Oil prices have fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day to around $86.00, approaching the key support level at $84. OPEC+ October output rose to 41.23 million barrels per day, up 2.04 million barrels compared to the previous period, indicating substantial supply-side easing. The US-Iran negotiation deadlock persists; while both sides avoid escalation, the benefits of easing remain difficult to realize and geopolitical risks are unresolved. The daily MACD still shows a downward structure; unless $88 is reclaimed, the bearish trend continues. The 4-hour MACD divergence has yet to result in an effective reversal. (2) Key focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US Dollar Index. (3) Resistance: 86.00, 87.00, 88.00. (4) Support: 85.00, 84.00, 83.20.