Middle Eastern crude oil premiums decline as supply recovery concerns intensify

(1) According to institutional reports, the Oman and Dubai Middle East crude oil benchmark spot premium fell on Thursday, reaching its lowest point in nearly four months, as data showed that concerns over excess supply increased following the resumption of regional production. (2) OPEC+ crude oil output rose in October, driven by an increase in Saudi production, despite continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. (3) Meanwhile, a decline in shipping costs made oil from other regions cheaper, diverting some demand. Traders stated that independent refineries have recently snapped up millions of barrels of Brazilian crude oil, as lower freight rates improved profit margins and refineries sought to exhaust their annual import quotas by year-end. (4) The spot Dubai premium over swaps fell by 48 cents to 8 cents per barrel. (5) Asian buyers have been snapping up Atlantic Basin crude at lower prices after tanker freight rates for African and Brazilian cargoes retreated sharply from historical highs, according to traders, ship brokers, and analysts. (6) An industry survey published by the Norwegian Statistics Bureau on Thursday showed that Norwegian oil and gas companies have lowered their predicted investment for 2026, while raising their outlook for 2027 compared with their estimates three months ago.