Nvidia earnings report and Anthropic trillion-dollar IPO coming in succession! The bigger test for AI trading is next week
The aftershocks of Jensen Huang's resignation have not subsided, and next week the AI sector faces a "double test": Nvidia's first financial report in the "post-Huang era"—if the performance falls short of expectations, the market's punishment will be intensified; Anthropic is launching its IPO with a trillion-dollar valuation. Two major uncertainties are looming, which will directly determine whether global capital's faith in AI can be sustained.
The turmoil surrounding Nvidia's CEO resignation has not yet subsided, and Wall Street has already shifted its attention to next week—a period that will see Nvidia's quarterly report and the IPO of Anthropic take center stage. Whether confidence in the AI trade can withstand this dual stress test remains to be seen, and the answer will soon be revealed.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang abruptly resigned last Thursday due to an extramarital affair scandal, sparking deep concerns in the market about this AI chip giant. Despite this, Nvidia's stock price fell about 13% this week, far less than the 20% drop or even greater declines previously feared by the market. The S&P 500 Index recorded its best weekly performance since August. At the same time, Anthropic announced a drastic reduction in its IPO valuation from the previous high of about $2 trillion, now expected to be around $1.2 to $1.4 trillion for this listing.
The shock to the market reflects the current fragility of the AI narrative. Higher-than-expected consumer inflation data, intensifying expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East combine to form undeniable macroeconomic pressures.
Sameer Samana, Head of Global Equities and Real Assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, warned that if both of next week’s major events disappoint, “it might finally wake investors from this state of always looking on the bright side.”
Nvidia: Earnings to Test Stability in the Post-Jensen Huang Era
Nvidia will release its quarterly financial results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday, marking the company’s first earnings report following Huang’s departure, amid intense external scrutiny.
According to Reuters, citing LSEG data, analysts expect Nvidia’s third-quarter revenue to be around $109 billion, with earnings up about 90% year-on-year. The market remains optimistic on the results themselves, but investors are more concerned about the stability of the management team and the continuity of the company’s strategy.
The question of succession has become the focus. Nvidia’s CFO and Interim CEO, Colette Kress, will be under pressure as she attends the earnings announcement, with outsiders hoping she can reassure investors.
This executive, who has served at Nvidia for 13 years and previously worked for Cisco and Microsoft, may not have Jensen Huang’s personal charisma, but analysts believe she can provide the managerial continuity needed for a smooth transition. According to reports, Ian Buck, Nvidia’s Vice President of Hyperscale and High Performance Computing, is currently an early frontrunner for the permanent CEO position.
In addition, Colette Kress will need to clarify a series of financing deals signed under Jensen Huang’s leadership, as there remain many uncertainties regarding these transactions.
Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, pointed out that given the uncertainty around Nvidia, “if results fall short of expectations, the market’s punishment will be magnified.”
However, some investors are viewing the current stock price as a buying opportunity. Nvidia’s share price has fallen more than 30% over the past six weeks, with its market value shrinking from around $5.8 trillion in early October to about $3.9 trillion.
Jeff Kilburg, founder of KKM Financial, said he has purchased January $200 call options this week, when the stock was around $160. “Their demand has been validated at a trillion-dollar level. From Blackwell to Ruben, the visibility extends to 2028—this is not going away,” Kilburg said. Dan Ives, partner at Yorkville Ives & Co., maintains a 12-month target price of $225 for Nvidia, considering the current price as a buying opportunity.
Anthropic: Trillion-Dollar IPO, AI Sentiment Barometer
Just two days after Nvidia’s earnings report, Claude chatbot developer Anthropic is expected to debut on the Nasdaq Global Select Market this Thursday, under the ticker “ANT.” The IPO pricing range is set at $70 to $78 per share, with plans to offer 825 million shares, aiming to raise as much as about $64.4 billion.
Prior to this listing, Anthropic had already reduced its valuation target from around $2 trillion earlier this fall to about $1.2–1.4 trillion.
Benjamin Black, Investment Director at the publicly traded Powerlaw Corp. fund, called this move prudent. He noted that, based on Anthropic’s expected annualized revenue of $100 billion by the end of 2026, the current pricing corresponds to about 12x ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue)—“not even that expensive.”
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said in a live conversation with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday that he hopes the company can “promise less, deliver more” at the IPO. Black added that he has never seen a company so heavily pursued by investors in the primary market. “Anthropic smartly left some price on the table so the public can also make money. I think this pricing will perform quite well.”
This IPO follows the successful market entry of Elon Musk’s SpaceX earlier this June—SpaceX raised about $75 billion at a nearly $1.75 trillion valuation. However, the stock’s performance has been volatile, dropping from its IPO price of $135 to about $105 in August, with the latest quote around $139.
Patrick Ryan, Chief Investment Strategist at Madison Investments, warned that if Anthropic’s post-IPO performance is weak, “this could be another warning sign that investors feel greater pressure in AI trading.”
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Goldman Sachs Global Stock Market Outlook: AI Capital Expenditure to Peak Next Year, Earnings Growth to "Slow Down Significantly", Cloud Giants Become "Defensive Assets"
Goldman Sachs’ 2027 Global Equity Strategy points out that the AI capital expenditure boom is nearing its peak, and global profit growth will slow significantly. S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to drop from 36% to 11%, with depreciation pressures gradually emerging. However, cloud giants’ valuations have adjusted to a forward P/E of 19.7, lower than the staples sector, and are classified as “relatively defensive” assets. Goldman Sachs predicts an S&P 500 target of 8,700 points and suggests overweighting the US and Japan, while underweighting Europe.
With $135 billion worth of Nvidia stock, will Jensen Huang cash out?
After Jensen Huang stepped down, his Nvidia holdings of approximately 812 million shares, valued at $135 billion, became a major pressure on the stock price. Any reduction in holdings is subject to both legal and market constraints: shares can only be sold compliantly after the disclosure of any undisclosed negative information, and the volume is equivalent to six trading days’ total market transactions, meaning large-scale cashouts would have to be spread over several months.
Will the traditional Christmas rally still happen in the US stock market this year?
After a simultaneous technical and position-based recovery in the US stock market, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan have successively signaled a year-end rebound. Extremely light positions, mean reversion of valuations, and seasonal support together create conditions for a short squeeze. However, global manufacturing import price inflation has annualized at around 24%, surpassing the pandemic peak, and the inflation bill will come due intensively in the first quarter of next year. Goldman Sachs warns that once the year-end rally materializes, it may exhaust future upside potential.
Anthropic IPO Roadshow: CEO Says "Doesn't Care About Market Conditions", Hopes to "Underpromise and Overdeliver"
As Anthropic gears up for its IPO, CEO Amodei remains deliberately low-key during the roadshow, emphasizing "under-promise and over-deliver," and appears calm regarding market volatility at the time of listing. In response to fluctuations in the AI sector and the Nvidia situation, Amodei stated he is not particularly concerned about the specific month of listing or market conditions, and frankly admits that allocation of computing power is "the most fundamental business challenge."
Crypto prices
More
