QCP Capital: ETH risk reversal, bearish bias accurately predicts decline, BTC may have difficulty breaking through the $64,000 to $73,000 range

Hedge funds have recorded net purchases of US TMT stocks on 10 out of the past 11 trading days, rebuilding tech long positions at the fastest pace in 15 months. However, an AI policy storm has struck at the "worst possible time"—calls by AI giants to slow down development have been rejected, and regulatory uncertainty has directly hit Asian tech stocks such as Softbank. As the tech sector's bullish run coincides with Super Central Bank Week, the sector now faces a severe test.

According to a survey by Jefferies, after the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro, delivery wait times in the four major markets—the US, UK, Germany, and Japan—have shortened by 5 to 11 days compared to last year, with no wait time in the US. Given stable production capacity, this is a clear sign of weak demand. Although the China and Hong Kong markets have performed better against the trend, there are still suspicions of speculative stockpiling. The new foldable Duo has been praised for its software experience, but its $2,000 price tag comes with a 254-gram body and dual-camera setup, leaving its hardware lagging significantly behind Android competitors. Jefferies maintains an "underperform" rating, with a target price implying a 21% downside from the current level.