Analysis: Multiple key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment for Bitcoin may have already ended
According to a ChainCatcher message reported by Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin recently falling 30% from its historical high of $109,350 to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11th, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.
Firstly, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. In the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days. The current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback in June 2024. To truly enter a bear market requires at least a drop of 40%, which has not yet been reached.
Secondly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from an early-2025 level of 109.2 down to104; contrasting sharply with dollar strength during the late-2021 bear market period. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically shows inverse correlation with DXY and therefore current dollar weakness could help stabilize Bitcoin prices.
Thirdly, derivatives market data show healthy signs: Despite prices falling by19% between March2nd and11th , annualized premiums for bitcoin futures remained at4 .5%, far above negative premium levels seen during June's bear-market phase in2022 . Meanwhile perpetual contract funding rates are close to zero indicating balanced demand for long/short leverage without excessive shorting typical in a bearish phase.
Fourthly major concerns center around potential U.S government shutdown on March15th and bubble risks within AI sector Several listed companies each worth over$150 billion have significantly pulled back including Tesla(-54%), Nvidia(-34%)and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment spread led to short-term adjustments in bitcoin price
In addition there are early warning signals emerging within US real estate markets potentially accelerating capital flows into scarce assets Analysts believe factors such as dollar weakness, historical data showing 30% price adjustments are insufficient to determine a bear market, resilience in the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility due to government shutdown risks and signs of crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to $90,000.
Currently Bitcoin has rebounded from its low point Market participants are closely watching progress on US government debt ceiling negotiations. There is disagreement within Republican Party over defense and immigration spending If an agreement is reached it could trigger positive response across risk asset markets including bitcoin.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Vance: The Alaska natural gas project will continue to move forward despite South Korea raising concerns about commercial viability.
(1) Although South Korea stated that its participation in the Alaska natural gas project depends on the project’s commercial viability, a move that prompted U.S. President Trump to threaten trade retaliation, U.S. Vice President Vance said the project will proceed. (2) On Monday, Vance said: “I believe this will definitely be achieved. Of course, some details still need to be finalized, and the South Korean side has already communicated regarding this.” (3) He added: “As long as there is market demand for these resources, and there is indeed strong demand for U.S. natural gas, I believe we will be able to complete this project.”
Singapore data center operator DayOne (DODC.US) applies for US listing, valuation may reach 20 billions USD
According to Jinse Finance, Singapore-based data center operator DayOne Data Centers submitted an F-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, aiming for an initial public offering (IPO) of American Depositary Shares (ADS) on the Nasdaq Stock Market, with the ticker symbol “DODC.” DayOne plans to use the IPO proceeds to develop and construct new data center projects, as well as for working capital and other general corporate purposes. While DayOne has not disclosed the size of the offering, previous reports indicated the company plans to raise up to 5 billions USD, with a potential valuation reaching 20 billions USD.
Spot gold breaks through the $4,130/oz mark
Spot gold has just surpassed the $4,130.00 per ounce mark, last quoted at $4,129.95 per ounce, down 0.25% for the day; COMEX gold futures main contract last quoted at $4,157.20 per ounce, up 0.01% for the day.
In the past seven days, the average daily crude oil throughput in the Strait of Hormuz was 10.3 million barrels, only 76% of the pre-war level.
According to the latest data from market intelligence firm Kpler, as of Saturday, the average daily crude oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the past seven days was 10.3 million barrels, which is only 76% of the pre-war baseline level.
Crypto prices
More
