Bitcoin Implied Volatility at 45% as Traders Bet on $100K–$120K Rally and Hedge with Puts Near $85K
COINOTAG News, December 18, citing The Block, reports that Derive founder Nick Forster sees traders shifting toward a defensive market structure. The 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility sits near 45%, with the Bitcoin skew around -5%. The longer horizon remains anchored through Q1–Q2 next year.
As expiry approaches, positioning demonstrates polarization. At the $100,000 and $120,000 strike levels, open interest in call options continues to climb, indicating bets on a potential rebound even as hedging activity persists.
On the risk side, traders accumulate significant put option exposure near the $85,000 strike to guard against a deeper pullback. The option-implied probabilities still depict a tough environment: roughly 30% odds of reaching $100,000 and about 10% to reclaim the all-time high, underscoring tempered near-term expectations.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Big Week Ahead: Ripple Heads to NYC With Wall Street Heavyweights
VIPOil Risk Premiums and rToken Dividend Arbitrage Strategies
1. This week we focus on cross-asset positioning under an energy shock and arbitrage opportunities in tokenized-stock cash dividends. We recommend assessing market direction separately from income sources. Higher oil can weigh on growth valuations, lift inflation expectations, and spark expectations of Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on equities and crypto. 2. rToken net cash dividends can be distributed separately, but buying spot, shorting a perpetual, and holding across the record date does not automatically create an arbitrage. First confirm ex-dividend eligibility, platform snapshots, after-tax amounts, and the corporate-action rules for the short leg. Then compare funding fees, spreads, and execution costs. A dividend arbitrage strategy can be applied to STRC. 3. Next week's Fed decision and major technology earnings are key. Lower policy uncertainty can help restore risk appetite, but a sustained rebound still needs confirmation from rates, cloud growth, capital expenditure, and free cash flow. Our base case is a monthly-timeframe rebound in risk assets and crypto as earnings season, the Fed meeting, and the midterm elections pass and uncertainty recedes. Assets in focus: BTC, ETH, SOL, WTI, ASML, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, CAT, and STRC
Goldman Sachs Names One Trade to Hedge an AI Market Shock
Big Tech Earnings Are a No-Win Test as Investors Punish Both Capex Cuts and Hikes
Crypto prices
More
