US CPI for December May See a Temporary Rebound, Extreme Value Risks Should Be Watched

The market expects that the US CPI for December may show a temporary rebound, with the data scheduled to be released this Tuesday at 21:30 (UTC+8). This is mainly due to the statistical correction effect after the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumed normal surveys, and does not necessarily indicate a structural deterioration in inflation. The non-farm payroll data for November showed the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, but the reliability of the data was affected by the government shutdown. Interest rate futures indicate that the market expects rates to remain unchanged at the January meeting, with the first rate cut possibly occurring between March and June. The mainstream expectation for this CPI is that the overall annual CPI will rebound to 3.1%, while the core annual CPI will remain at 3.0%. The December CPI may intensify short-term market volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of extreme readings on interest rate expectations and asset pricing.