Guangda Futures 1030 Gold Commentary: Macroeconomic data exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations suppress gold performance

Overnight, the gold market was weak and volatile, with London spot gold falling 0.45% to close near $4,033/oz, while the SHFR Shanghai Gold main contract dropped 1.02%. Influenced by U.S. Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data coming in above expectations, and as concerns over a December rate hike remained after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, plus renewed turbulence in overseas financial markets last night, ongoing liquidity fears led precious metals to retrace once again—caution is advised. Under macroeconomic pressure, gold remains under short-term pressure. In the near term, attention is on the Israeli elections and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September, with the market focus likely shifting to the period around the U.S. mid-term elections.

On the macro data front, the initial value for U.S. Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly growth was 3.4%, higher than the market’s expected 3.2% and the previous 2.2%; however, the quality of the growth is questionable—the initial figure for Q3 final sales annualized growth was only 1.7%, below the expected 2.0% and a marked drop from the previous 2.8%, implying that a considerable portion of the 3.4% growth came from inventory and net export contributions rather than end demand. U.S. September PCE inflation year-on-year rose to 3.6%, the highest since May this year, with core PCE year-on-year climbing to 3.1%, as energy price rebounds became a key driver for rising inflation. The labor market remains tight, with initial jobless claims at 194,000 for the week ending October 24, below the expected 199,000. Precious metals had a muted short-term response after the data release, as the market had already anticipated the “strong growth + sticky inflation” combination. The Federal Reserve’s October meeting left rates unchanged, and in the press conference, Waller gave cautious signals: he explicitly stated, “Except in a crisis, do not rely on forward guidance,” noted that the impact of the September rate hike was largely as expected and that the credit environment has already tightened, but he is “unwilling and unable to confirm it is overly tight.” He also revealed that Q3 GDP could exceed 3%, and most officials believe the economy is not overheating. Regarding the meeting system, he said holding eight meetings per year is appropriate, that next year one meeting will not have a policy rate vote, increasing to two meetings without votes in 2028, and announced he will attend a hearing on November 16 focusing on AI’s impact on productivity and employment.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional Qualification: F3046227

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu Henan