US: Understanding the Impact of the Shutdown on Absent Inflation Figures
Analyzing Inflation Trends Amid Limited Data
Over the last four months, the availability of inflation statistics has been limited as a result of the government shutdown. This disruption meant that, until January 22, updated personal consumer expenditures (PCE) figures were only available up to September, and the consumer price index (CPI) lacked several monthly updates for October and November.
In this article, we utilize an enhanced version of the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model to assess how underlying inflation evolved during this period of incomplete data. The MCT model is particularly effective for this analysis, as it separates inflation rates by sector into a long-term trend (persistent component) and other factors.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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