CryptoQuant says bitcoin, ether rally driven by new long positions in perpetual futures

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) prices have moved higher, and the rally is driven by new long positions in the perpetual futures market, according to CryptoQuant.

The price of bitcoin rose about 4% and ether about 6% within 24 hours of President Donald Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire, marking the strongest single-day move in more than a month and reversing the recent bearish trend, CryptoQuant noted.

The move was mainly driven by perpetual futures traders, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a Thursday report. Open interest in BTC and ETH perpetual futures rose by $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, within the 24 hours following the ceasefire announcement late Tuesday, Moreno said. Dollar-denominated open interest for both BTC and ETH also reached levels not seen in nearly a month, he added.

"This synchronized surge across both major assets reflects macro-event-driven positioning, with traders front-running an anticipated improvement in broader risk sentiment. Crucially, coin-denominated open interest also increased significantly for both assets, ruling out short liquidations as the primary driver and confirming that traders are opening net new long positions," Moreno wrote.

Buying activity also increased in perpetual futures markets. The taker buy-sell ratio for both bitcoin and ether moved above 1, showing dominant buying and stronger directional conviction, CryptoQuant said.

"The coordinated bullish positioning across BTC and ETH reinforces that the market is pricing in a sustained improvement in macro conditions at least in the short-term," Moreno said.

At the same time, demand from U.S. investors also picked up. The Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for both bitcoin and ether after staying negative for several weeks.

"If the ceasefire holds and no escalatory news emerges over the next two weeks, the Coinbase premium could sustain positive territory, reinforcing the bullish price trajectory," Moreno wrote.

On the price side, bitcoin has moved above a key level known as the traders’ lower realized price, around $69,400, which had acted as resistance for several weeks, CryptoQuant said. If bitcoin holds above this level and no escalatory developments emerge from the U.S.-Iran front, the next key target is the traders' realized price at around $79,000, Moreno said, noting that's a level historically associated with bear market resistance and "a key hurdle for structural recovery."