US: Energy shock set to lift headline CPI – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists expect a sharp acceleration in US CPI for March as higher gasoline prices feed through. They project headline CPI at 0.95% month‑on‑month, the strongest since June 2022, lifting the annual rate back to 3.4%. Core CPI is seen rising more moderately, keeping underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Headline seen reaccelerating on gasoline surge

"Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data."

"For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March."

"If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024."

"Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)