Analyst: High holdings and persistent negative funding rates coexist, making short-term market speculation increasingly complex

BlockBeats news, on April 23, according to a post by analyst (@Murphychen888) on social media, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest (OI) has rebounded to a recent high, around 472,000 BTC, indicating market leverage is accumulating again.

Meanwhile, shorts continue to dominate the active trading direction, resulting in perpetual prices being at a sustained discount compared to spot prices. During yesterday's peak, shorts paid an average funding rate of over $600,000 per hour, far exceeding the 7-day average ($197,000), significantly increasing short positions' holding costs.

Analysis points out that high OI combined with a persistent negative premium can easily trigger a short squeeze during a market rebound, fueling price moves upward. Historical data shows that after the 7-day average funding premium for longs turned negative on both March 9 and April 13 this year, the market experienced a staged rebound each time.

Unlike the rapid pullback at the $97,000 resistance in January, the current structure shows that the short-term market is more complex. In the current environment, shorts are under continuous funding cost pressure, while longs have yet to establish a clear follow-up trend.

Overall, although high negative funding rates do not necessarily trigger a short squeeze, the combination of high open interest and cost pressure means that shorting no longer has a clear advantage in terms of odds and logic. The market is currently operating in a rhythm of "event-driven → liquidation squeeze → return to consolidation".