Three scenarios for Non-Farm Payroll Data: U.S. stock investors prepare for all outcomes

Shipping giant Maersk will increase the Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS) to 20%, effective from October 12, 2026.

The New Zealand dollar gave up earlier gains and turned lower against the US dollar during Thursday’s European morning session as market sentiment weakened. Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, which in turn pushed up US Treasury yields and limited the dollar's decline after it weakened during the Asian session. Another attack by the Houthi rebels in Yemen on a Saudi airport further pushed oil prices higher. With concerns rising over potential further attacks on Saudi oil facilities and potential supply constraints, Brent crude oil prices rose to near $102 per barrel. The rally in oil also lifted US Treasury yields, as markets believed elevated energy prices would force central banks to tighten monetary policy. This offset the slight weakness in the dollar following the release of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The minutes showed that the Fed remains concerned about inflation, but did not alter market expectations that rates would be held steady in October.

Germany’s next-day delivery baseload electricity price fell by 41.2% to 85 euros per megawatt hour.

(1) Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau stated that the Middle East crisis has triggered geopolitical shocks impacting all economies, including those with relatively strong public finances. (2) As a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, he did not directly mention France’s current difficulties when discussing inflation’s impact on global bond yields. (3) Villeroy de Galhau said, “We observe a strong correlation between oil prices, US long-term interest rates, and European interest rates. This rise in rates affects all countries, regardless of their fiscal health. In fact, some countries with very strong public finances are equally affected, just like those in weaker fiscal positions.” (4) France is currently under close investor scrutiny as it strives to pass a budget and narrow its large fiscal deficit, with related tensions evoking memories of the eurozone debt crisis. (5) Earlier on Thursday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire insisted that there is no difficulty selling French government bonds. (6) Villeroy de Galhau also pointed out that consumer price increases driven by oil and gas price shocks have not significantly spread to other sectors.