FactSet forecasts: US non-farm payrolls may increase by 105,000 in May
- According to the median estimate derived from FactSet’s comprehensive forecasts from six institutions, the number of US nonfarm payrolls is expected to increase by 105,000 in May 2026. If the actual data aligns with this expectation, it will mark a slowdown compared to the 115,000 increase in April, but still remains significantly higher than the average monthly growth over the past 12 months (about 20,900).
- Among forecasts collected by FactSet, institutions estimate employment growth ranging from 50,000 to 125,000, a span of 75,000, which is narrower than the average range of the past 12 months (86,300). The median estimate for the unemployment rate is 4.3%, consistent with the actual rate in April and in line with the average unemployment rate for the past 12 months.
- Reviewing historical data, in the past 12 months the actual nonfarm payroll has exceeded the median estimate 5 times, and has been below expectations 7 times. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the actual data was higher than estimated in 45% of cases, equal in 2%, and lower in 53%. The current forecast for the unemployment rate is between 4.2% and 4.3%, a range of 10 basis points, which is narrower than the average range of the past 12 months (40 basis points).
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will officially release the May nonfarm payroll report at 20:30 (Beijing time), on Friday, June 5. The market will closely monitor the difference between the actual results and forecasts to assess the real state of the labor market and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s future policy path.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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