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Santander: The European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September to 2.5%. If US-Iran negotiations break down, rates may rise to 3.75% by the end of the year.

Santander: The European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September to 2.5%. If US-Iran negotiations break down, rates may rise to 3.75% by the end of the year.

汇通财经汇通财经2026/06/08 11:07
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⑴ Analysts at Santander Bank stated in a report that the European Central Bank is expected to characterize rate hikes as a policy adjustment in response to a high energy price environment, rather than the start of a rate hike cycle. In the bank’s base scenario, a total of 50 basis points of rate hikes are expected by 2026, with a 25 basis point hike in June and another 25 basis point hike in September, which would bring the deposit rate up to 2.5%. ⑵ As the energy shock gradually fades, Santander expects the European Central Bank to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2027. However, analysts also pointed out a more severe scenario: if negotiations between the United States and Iran break down after the summer, the European Central Bank could raise rates to 3.75% by the end of 2026. ⑶ From a trading sentiment perspective, the market is currently not fully pricing in the European Central Bank’s rate hike path. If the stalemate between the US and Iran continues to push up energy prices, raising rates to 3.75% by year-end would mean an additional 125 basis points of tightening compared to the base scenario. Future attention should be paid to diplomatic developments in the Middle East and whether eurozone inflation data will force the European Central Bank to adopt a more hawkish tone.
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