Goldman Sachs: South Korea's annual exports may exceed one trillion dollars; Multiple institutions analyze diverging global inflation paths amid Middle East shocks

BlockBeats News, June 24, Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the AI capital expenditure boom has exceeded expectations in both its driving force and duration for the South Korean chip cycle. The massive trade surplus driven by AI is expected to continue until year-end, with South Korea’s annual exports projected to surpass 1 trillion US dollars, and the current account surplus as a proportion of GDP rising to 15%.

In the United States, the latest research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that this spring's oil price surge to over 120 US dollars per barrel reduced US economic output by about 0.3 percentage points; however, this impact is much lower than that of similar oil crises in the 1980s, reflecting the US economy’s significantly increased resilience to oil price shocks.

In the Eurozone, ING analysts point out that while June’s PMI data still show business activity in contraction territory, the easing of inflationary pressures due to lower energy prices is encouraging. The growth rate of input costs in both the manufacturing and services sectors has slowed. Weak growth combined with diminishing inflation concerns will dampen the European Central Bank’s willingness to raise interest rates sharply.

In Australia, Westpac maintains its forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates in August, and warns that the “second-round effects” of Middle Eastern supply shocks are spreading—costs of fuel, transport, and chemical products are already starting to spill over into more sectors beyond energy. Wage cost pressures in the second half of 2026 may further drive up inflation, and the withdrawal of policy support measures will also prolong inflation risks beyond the August monetary policy meeting.