Kazakhstan expands alternative routes for oil exports, short-term reliance on CPC remains difficult to resolve

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智通财经2026/09/13 00:31

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On September 8, a drone incident occurred near the CPC (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) terminal close to Novorossiysk, resulting in a temporary suspension of crude oil loading. This event once again highlights Kazakhstan's heavy dependence on its main export corridor through Russia. According to the Ministry of Energy, the country plans to export 64.8 million tons of oil via CPC in 2025.
Astana is actively seeking alternative routes, but the difference in transport capacity remains significant. The Ministry of Energy estimates that annual oil volume via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is around 1.2 million tons. Azerbaijan has stated it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil per year through BTC, while KazMunayGas expects its exports in 2026 to be 1.6 million tons. Even when calculated using the higher figure, this accounts for only about 3% of last year’s exports via CPC.
The Caspian route enables Kazakh oil to bypass Russian territory entirely: crude oil is first transported to the port of Aktau, then shipped across the Caspian Sea by tanker to Azerbaijan, and thereafter sent through the BTC pipeline across Georgia to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey. However, this route is logistically more complex, and significantly increasing capacity would require more tankers and improvements to the transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian Sea.
Kazakhstan also exports oil to major Asian countries. Another option is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, but this route still delivers crude to Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit.
The latest incident led to the suspension of loading operations at two Single Point Mooring facilities. The Ministry of Energy stated that checks on equipment and vessels revealed no issues affecting continued loading, and no environmental impacts were reported; loading operations have resumed, and CPC has not imposed restrictions on receiving Kazakh oil. Since 2026, CPC operations have been interrupted several times due to repeated attacks in the terminal area.
Minister of Energy Akchulakov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July have resulted in approximately 3.5 million tons of lost oil production. He stated that Kazakhstan had to lower its oil production forecast for 2026 from 98 million tons to about 96 million tons.

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Kazakhstan expands alternative routes for oil exports, short-term reliance on CPC remains difficult to resolve

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