This Week’s U.S. Equity Macro Outlook (September 14–18)

September 14 (Monday)

1. The planned Gulf states–Iran regional meeting in Salalah, Oman, has been postponed; watch Hormuz shipping order and energy risk premium;

September 15 (Tuesday)

1. The U.S. Senate holds a procedural vote to advance the CLARITY Act; 60 votes are required while Republicans hold only 53 seats, making Democratic support decisive;
2. Treasury Secretary Bessent testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the international financial system;
3. The U.S. releases weekly ADP employment change through August 29 (20:15, prior +12,000) and the September New York Fed manufacturing index (20:30, prior 20.6, forecast 12.1);

September 16 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ The U.S. releases August retail sales (20:30); consensus looks for +0.8% m/m (prior -0.6%), core retail +0.4% (prior -0.2%), coinciding with the first day of the FOMC meeting;
2. August import price index m/m is also due (prior -0.40%); September NAHB Housing Market Index (22:00, prior 35, forecast 34) and July business inventories (forecast +0.20%);
3. Lennar (LEN) reports fiscal Q3 after the close; EPS expected at $1.30 vs. $2.00 a year ago, revenue seen down about 5% y/y to $8.37 billion;

September 17 (Thursday)

1. ★★★★★ The Fed releases its September rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections (02:00); Chair Warsh holds a press conference (02:30); Bloomberg calls the hike-vs-hold call a close contest;
2. The July meeting held rates in a 9–3 vote, with three members favoring a hike; at Jackson Hole, Warsh said core inflation has not improved in a substantive way, and since taking office he has declined to give forward guidance or submit a personal dot-plot;
3. The SEC holds a roundtable on 24-hour trading (00:00);
4. The U.S. releases the September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (20:30, prior 47.4, forecast 32.1), initial jobless claims (prior 206,000), plus August housing starts (forecast 1.315 million), building permits and pending home sales;

September 18 (Friday)

1. U.S. stocks face triple witching, with index futures, index options and single-stock options expiring together; residual FOMC uncertainty raises late-session volatility risk;
2. The U.S. releases August industrial production m/m (21:15, prior +0.20%, forecast +0.30%) and August Conference Board Leading Indicators m/m (22:00, prior +0.20%, forecast +0.20%);
3. iPhone 18 Pro goes on sale; watch pricing and demand delivery; 

*This week’s core U.S. equity themes center on the September FOMC decision and Warsh’s press conference, August retail sales as a consumption check, the CLARITY Act vote, Lennar earnings and triple witching; market volatility is expected to intensify