Altman can afford to wait, but Masayoshi Son can't: OpenAI will not go public this year, exposing a $20 billion gap and a credit weakness for SoftBank.

OpenAI has put aside its plans for an IPO this year, pushing its largest external shareholder, SoftBank, into the credit market spotlight—while Altman can afford to wait, Masayoshi Son cannot.

Wallstreetcn mentioned that on September 13, Sam Altman stated in an interview with Fortune that although OpenAI had secretly filed for an IPO in June, it will not go public this year, and will instead prioritize addressing concerns related to AI safety.

This stance further exacerbates SoftBank’s liquidity predicament. SoftBank executives are in New York this week meeting with investors, intending to issue $10 to $20 billion in bonds.

On Monday, SoftBank shares plunged nearly 11% in Tokyo, and its credit default swaps (CDS) climbed to the highest since March.

According to Bloomberg’s estimates, SoftBank is facing at least a $20 billion funding gap, and the funds raised through bond issuance are precisely intended to repay the $40 billion bridge loan previously taken to add more investment in OpenAI. How to fill this gap has become Masayoshi Son’s biggest challenge ahead.

OpenAI’s IPO was once seen as the most critical exit node in SoftBank’s investment strategy.

The market previously expected OpenAI to go public as early as September, with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, while SoftBank had invested around $64.6 billion cumulatively and held about 13% equity. The latest funding round valued OpenAI at $852 billion.

Altman’s statement deflated these expectations, and SoftBank cannot liquidate its holdings in the short term, which is a clear risk signal for credit investors.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, even after SoftBank raised $10 billion through margin loans linked to its OpenAI shares, and $6.3 billion from yen retail bond financing, it still faces at least a $20 billion funding gap.

If Masayoshi Son further increases his investment in US data centers, the actual funding requirement would be even higher.

SoftBank’s balance sheet structure also worries credit investors. Its venture portfolio is highly concentrated, with Arm Holdings and OpenAI alone accounting for roughly 75% of total asset value.

More critically, Masayoshi Son used debt to purchase OpenAI shares, and now SoftBank’s recurring cash flow—such as dividends from its Japanese telecom subsidiary—is far from enough to cover its interest expenses.

The yen carry trade that has supported Masayoshi Son’s investment model for decades is now failing.

About half of SoftBank’s interest-bearing debt is denominated in yen, while nearly all its equity assets are valued in dollars.

As the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds rises to about 3% and the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates again this week, the cheap domestic capital that Masayoshi Son once relied on is no longer readily available.

SoftBank’s pivot to courting institutional investors in the US is a direct reflection of this new reality.

Market traders have already sensed an opportunity, betting that SoftBank will have to offer generous terms to relieve its liquidity squeeze. The trading price of its existing dollar bonds is closer to lower-rated B-grade corporate bonds, far below Fitch’s BB+ rating.

The 5-year notes issued this April now yield over 8.5%, similar to “junk” bonds issued by data center developers like Core Scientific.

Masayoshi Son’s heavy bet on OpenAI is raising market doubts. His initial $34.6 billion investment was made when OpenAI was valued at around $260 billion, already locking in substantial gains.

However, his latest $30 billion add-on this year came after a sharp valuation increase, further pressuring the company’s balance sheet.

This strategy is in stark contrast to industry giants like NVIDIA, who diversify and invest in multiple rival large language model developers, while Masayoshi Son concentrates his capital in a single target.

Supporters may see this as the ultimate expression of Masayoshi Son’s typical “all-in” investment philosophy, the style that brought him to the top of Japan’s rich list.

However, credit market investors clearly do not share his risk appetite. They are much more concerned about concentrated asset risk and the funding gap, forcing Masayoshi Son to pay a premium for his convictions.