Crypto Circle Academician: 10.25 Bitcoin (BTC) stopped out at 80,000 yesterday. I spent a whole night reviewing and figured out these three things!
Brothers, let me admit my mistake to everyone first. The long orders I suggested yesterday in the 81,000–80,500 range couldn't withstand that sharp drop and were stopped out right at the 80,000 mark. This order didn’t lose much, but the lesson was profound. Yesterday’s cut at 80,000 hurt, but it was valuable—it reminded me that a stop-loss line should never be vague, no matter what. Today, we'll try with a light position. If we earn, it's experience; if we lose, it's tuition. The key is to survive.
On the daily K-line, there's buying just below 80,000, but selling pressure above is also heavy. On the moving average system, EMA15 is at 82,117 and EMA30 is at 82,061. The price has fallen below both of these short-term moving averages, so the short-term bullish structure has broken. However, EMA60 is at 80,022, which serves exactly as today's dividing line between bulls and bears, and the price is currently sitting right on this line. Further below, EMA90 is at 78,031 and EMA120 is at 76,787, so the medium-term uptrend hasn't been broken yet. MACD bearish momentum hasn’t been fully released. The lower Bollinger Band is at 79,813, and the price is repeatedly testing this level.
The 4-hour K-line shows a clear downward structure. Currently, the price is oscillating around 80,000. EMA15 has crossed below EMA30, forming a death cross, and all short-term moving averages have turned downward. MACD is running below the zero axis; the green bars have narrowed somewhat, but there’s no sign of a golden cross yet. The middle Bollinger Band around 81,500 is acting as a strong resistance, and the upper band at 85,288 seems unlikely to be reached in the short term. The key is whether a strong bullish candle with volume can appear in the 79,800–80,000 area to recover the short-term structure. If it breaks below 79,800, the next target is around EMA90 at 78,000.
Short-term references:
Going north: 78,500 to 78,000 faces resistance, stop-loss of 500 points, target 79,500 to 81,000
Going south: 81,500 to 82,000 meets price stagnation, stop-loss of 500 points, target 80,500 to 79,500
Specific operations should be based on real-time order book data. For more info, you can consult the author. There is a delay in article publishing, so suggestions are for reference only; please bear your own risk.
