Crypto Circle Academic: Every major drop in Bitcoin (BTC) at 11.2, I always see the same script playing out
Let me start with a few words. Privately, a lot of people ask me whether we've hit the bottom. Honestly, if I knew, I would have gone all in already. When it comes to trading, there’s no holy grail, only probabilities. Look at this wave from 57,000 up to 87,000—a rise of almost 30,000 points. Is it strange to see a 10,000-point correction now? Not at all. A 20% drop in a bull market is normal volatility, let alone the fact that we’re only down 11%. That said, don't rush into "catching the bottom" either—the bottom is formed through price action, not guesses. Set your stop-loss, try with a small position, and let the market give you the answer. By the way, everything above is just my personal trading notes, not investment advice of any kind. The crypto market is highly volatile—only play with money you can afford to lose.
The daily K chart has already pulled back about 11% from the 87,385 high. On the moving average system, the price has already dropped below the EMA15, EMA30, and EMA60 short- to mid-term moving averages, and is now stuck battling at the EMA90 near 78,222—whether this line holds is very important. Looking further down, the EMA120 is at 76,992, which is the lifeline for the current uptrend. As long as this is not breached, the bigger structure remains intact. As for the MACD, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line; while the green bar is narrowing, the bearish trend remains. The lower Bollinger Band is at 77,214, with price currently running along it, so in the short term it's in a weak, choppy range.
Pay attention to a few details on the four-hour K line: First, the TD9 reversal signal, which is considered a notable bottoming signal by short-term technical traders. Second, the MACD’s DIF has already crossed above the DEA, and the red bar is expanding, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is weakening. Third, price has just reclaimed EMA15 above 77,888, but EMA30 at 78,603 forms the first resistance above, and then EMA60 near 79,543 adds another ceiling. The middle Bollinger Band at 78,012 is right at the current price—this is the battleground between bulls and bears. If it holds above, the price can bounce further; if not, expect another test of previous lows.
Short-term reference:
Going north, resistance is at 77,500 to 77,000. Stop loss: 500 points; target: 78,000 to 80,000
Heading south, if price stagnates at 79,500 to 80,000, stop loss: 500 points; target: 78,500 to 77,500
For specific operations, refer to order book real-time data. For more information, you can contact the author. Articles are published with delay; the above opinions are for reference only. Risks are your own responsibility.
